Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10-11-23 MLB NLDS Game 3 Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/11/23 – The National League Division Series sees the Atlanta Braves and the Philadelphia Phillies clashing in what promises to be an exhilarating Game 3, with the series currently balanced at 1-1. Both teams have displayed remarkable skill and determination throughout the season. With starting pitchers from both sides set to take center stage in this pivotal matchup, those seeking the best MLB free picks today would be wise to delve deep into the statistics and trends leading up to this game.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Date & Time: Wednesday, October 11, 2023, at 5:07 PM ET

Location: Citizens Bank Park


Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies 10/11/23 Betting Odds

Braves+112+1.5 (-181)9 over (-105)
Phillies -122-1.5 (+161)9 under (-115)

Atlanta Braves Analysis

The Atlanta Braves have exhibited a stellar offensive performance this season. A team batting average of 0.276 coupled with a staggering 947 runs is testament to their dominance. Their 1543 hits and an imposing tally of 307 home runs further emphasize their offensive might. The Braves’ on-base percentage of 0.344 and a slugging percentage of 0.501 highlight their efficiency in both reaching bases and generating substantial runs.

On the defensive end, the Braves have held their ground with a 4.14 ERA. Their WHIP of 1.3, while decent, suggests some susceptibility. Nevertheless, with 1516 strikeouts this season, their pitching staff has effectively neutralized many opposing batters.

The Braves’ starting pitcher, AJ Smith-Shawver, boasts a win-loss record of 1-0. With an ERA of 4.26 over 25.1 innings pitched, he has shown potential. His 20 strikeouts against 11 walks indicate a balanced approach, and he will be looking to make a significant impact in this matchup.

Philadelphia Phillies Analysis

The Philadelphia Phillies, although lagging slightly behind the Braves in terms of raw numbers, have shown resilience and determination. Their batting average of 0.256, combined with 796 runs, establishes them as a competent offensive force. With 1417 hits and 220 home runs, they’ve demonstrated their ability to shift the momentum of games with their batting.

Defensively, the Phillies shine slightly brighter than the Braves with an ERA of 4.02. Their tighter WHIP of 1.24 showcases their efficiency in limiting base runners, and 1454 strikeouts emphasize their dominant pitching throughout the season.

Aaron Nola, the Phillies’ chosen starting pitcher for this game, has an extensive experience this season with a 12-9 record. His 4.46 ERA over 193.2 innings, while moderate, is complemented by 202 strikeouts, demonstrating his ability to challenge batters consistently.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Against the Spread

The Braves, in recent times, have shown a positive trend, with the total going OVER in 13 of their last 18 games. Their 8-4 SU record in both their last 12 games and against the Phillies indicates a certain edge. The total has also gone OVER in 6 of Atlanta’s last 7 road games, and they enjoy a strong 5-1 SU in their recent road encounters against the Phillies.

Contrarily, the Phillies are coming off a strong home performance with an 8-1 SU in their last 9 home games. Yet, they’ve found it challenging at home against the Braves, going 1-5 SU in their last 6 matchups. Betting trends show a tendency for the total to go OVER in 6 of Philadelphia’s last 9 games against the Braves.

Atlanta Braves vs. Philadelphia Phillies Free Pick

Considering the odds, trends, team stats, and starting pitchers, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Phillies -122 

Given the Philadelphia Phillies strong home record recently and Nola’s experience on the mound, theyhave a slight edge.

Spread: Braves +1.5 (-181)

The Braves’ recent head-to-head record against the Phillies suggests they can keep it close.

Total: 9 over (-105)

Both teams have shown trends toward high-scoring games recently, making an over likely.

Predicted Score: Philadelphia Phillies 6, Atlanta Braves 5

In conclusion, this matchup promises to be a nail-biter, and while the Phillies seem to hold a slight edge, especially with their home advantage, the Braves are no pushovers. For those engaging in Canadian live betting, the spread on the Braves seems the most reliable pick to consider.