Bowling Green Falcons vs. Kent State Golden Flashes 11-8-23 NCAAF Week 11 Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Kent State Golden Flashes 11/8/23 – As the NCAAF season presses forward into Week 11, the contest between the Bowling Green Falcons and the Kent State Golden Flashes is capturing the attention of college football enthusiasts and bettors looking for expert NCAAF picks. With Bowling Green’s decent 5-4 standing clashing against Kent State’s struggling 1-8 record, the stakes are high for both teams. 

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Kent State Golden Flashes

Date & Time: Wednesday, November 8 at 7:00 PM ET

Location: Dix Stadium


Bowling Green Falcons vs. Kent State Golden Flashes 11/8/23 Betting Odds

Bowling Green-287-6.5 (-122)38.5 over (-104)
Kent State+209+6.5 (-110)38.5 under (-118)

Bowling Green Falcons Analysis

The Falcons’ offense has been modest but effective enough to carry them through to a just-over-break-even season so far. The performance of quarterback Connor Bazelak has been central to their efforts; with 93 completions out of 161 attempts and 1023 passing yards, he’s managed to keep the chains moving with a 57.8 completion percentage and 6.4 yards per pass attempt. However, Bazelak will need to improve his touchdown-to-interception ratio, which currently stands at 7 to 6, to truly dominate in the upcoming game.

In the backfield, Terion Stewart has been a powerhouse, amassing 762 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns, highlighting the running game’s strength. The wide receiver Odieu Hiliare has been Bazelak’s reliable target, with his 23 receptions for 235 receiving yards demonstrating the Falcons’ aerial capabilities.

Defensively, Bowling Green has areas to bolster, especially when facing a team desperate to turn their luck around. While their last five games show a strong 4-1 straight up (SU) record, they need to address their against the spread (ATS) performance, particularly against Kent State, where they’re 1-4 in their last five encounters.

Kent State Golden Flashes Analysis

The Golden Flashes’ season has been marred by disappointments, with only one win to their name. Quarterback Michael Alaimo, responsible for steering the offensive ship, has completed 79 out of 144 passes with 932 yards thrown. His completion rate stands below average at 54.9%, and the touchdown production is low, with only 2 passing touchdowns to date. A positive takeaway, though, is his relatively low interception numbers at 4, which indicates a potential for careful ball management.

On the ground, Gavin Garcia’s efforts (407 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns) have shown glimmers of effectiveness but have not been enough to dominate games. Chrishon McCray, the standout wide receiver with 610 receiving yards, is one of the few highlights in a team that desperately needs a win.

Defensively, the Golden Flashes have been porous, allowing too many points on the board. The team’s overall defense will have to tighten up and prevent the Falcons from finding their rhythm, as indicated by their own troubling ATS statistics, which include a 0-5-1 in their last 6 games.

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Against the Spread

The Falcons have shown a strong ability to win games outright, but their performance against the spread, particularly against Kent State, has been less than stellar. They will need to translate their winning capability into covering the spread to satisfy bettors, given their 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against the Golden Flashes.

Conversely, Kent State’s record is unflattering, both SU and ATS, raising questions about their ability to cover even with the +6.5 spread. Their home and conference games’ performances haven’t helped their cause, with the team failing to cover the spread consistently.

Bowling Green Falcons vs. Kent State Golden Flashes Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Bowling Green -287

Despite the high juice on the moneyline, Bowling Green’s outright winning trend makes them a safer pick over a Kent State team that’s struggled all season.

Spread: Bowling Green -6.5 (-122)

The Falcons should capitalize on the Golden Flashes’ defensive weaknesses to cover the spread, despite the historical ATS trends.

Total: 38.5 over (-104)

Given both teams’ offensive abilities and defensive shortcomings, expecting a total score over 38.5 seems reasonable, especially with the Falcons’ offensive showing signs of productivity.

Predicted Score: Bowling Green Falcons 27, Kent State Golden Flashes 17

While the moneyline for Bowling Green is steep, it appears to be the most reliable pick for those looking to place a bet on this game. The Falcons have shown the ability to win and should extend their positive run against a Kent State team that hasn’t found its footing. For those looking for the best betting sites in Canada, the Falcons covering the spread is also a worthy consideration, providing a blend of risk and reward. Bettors should, however, verify these insights with the latest game conditions and odds from reputable sportsbooks for the best betting experience.