Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL Week 16 Betting Picks and Prediction for Dec. 24, 2023

Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL Week 16 – In a high-stakes NFL Week 16 matchup, the Dallas Cowboys (10-4) travel to Hard Rock Stadium to face the Miami Dolphins (10-4). This Sunday promises an intense clash between two top-tier teams, both boasting identical win-loss records. Set to air on FOX at 4:25 PM ET, this game is not just a showdown of skill, but also a critical juncture for NFL betting picks enthusiasts looking to capitalize on the season’s dynamics.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins

Date & Time: Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 4:25 PM ET

Location: Hard Rock Stadium


Cowboys vs. Dolphins NFL Week 16 Betting Odds

Cowboys+107+1 (-104)51 over (-110)
Dolphins-127-1 (-116)51 under (-110)

Dallas Cowboys Analysis

Led by QB Dak Prescott, the Cowboys boast an efficient passing offense averaging 259.9 yards per game. Prescott has passed for over 3,639 yards and 28 TDs while minimizing mistakes with just 7 interceptions. His 68.8% completion rate allows Dallas to sustain long drives. Prescott spreads the ball around but his favorite weapon is WR CeeDee Lamb, who has eclipsed 1,306 receiving yards this season. Lamb’s big play ability, gives the Cowboys a quick strike component to complement their short passing game.

However, the Dallas run game behind RB Tony Pollard has stalled lately. After a strong start, the Cowboys have failed to crack 100 rushing yards in 3 of their last 4 games. Pollard averages a respectable 4.1 yards per carry but hasn’t provided enough impact lately. The decreased run production has put extra pressure on Prescott and the passing attack. For the Cowboys to have success against Miami’s athletic defense, re-establishing Pollard and the ground game will be key.

Defensively, the Cowboys bend but don’t break. They allow the 7th most yards per game but rank 13th in points allowed. However, the Dallas secondary remains vulnerable to elite receivers like Tyreek Hill when they can’t generate pressure. Miami’s quick passing game neutralizes the Cowboys pass rush. Dallas must contain Hill and keep Tagovailoa from finding a rhythm to have a chance.

Miami Dolphins Analysis

Behind breakout QB Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins have fielded an explosive offense. Tagovailoa is averaging 280 passing yards per game with 25 TDs and over 3,921 passing yards. Speedy WR Tyreek Hill has terrorized opponents, leading Miami with 1542 receiving yards and 12 TDs. Hill’s elite separation skills and run after catch ability gives Tagovailoa a quick outlet against pressure. The duo has connected on 26 plays over 20+ yards. The run game has also excelled, with RB Raheem Mostert finding the end zone 18 times. Mostert averages nearly 5 yards per carry and keeps defenses honest. However, the Dolphins’ efficiency drops substantially on the road. Away from Miami, Tagovailoa’s yards per attempt and completion rate fall off while Mostert averages 15 fewer rushing yards per contest.

The Dolphins’ defense has improved throughout the year but still allows too many big plays. While ranking 12th in points allowed, the Dolphins give up the 5th most yards per game. The secondary has been Miami’s weak spot, an area that Prescott and Lamb could exploit. Miami must generate pressure and turnovers to take pressure off the defensive backfield. If Tagovailoa commits turnovers of his own, it will put Miami’s defense in difficult positions to succeed.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Against the Spread

Dallas has excelled against the spread recently, covering in 6 of their last 9. When facing AFC foes, Dallas covers over 60% of the time. The total has also gone under in 4 of Dallas’ last 5 games against AFC teams.

Meanwhile, Miami covers over 70% at home this season. Against NFC East rivals, Miami has dominated ATS, covering 14 of their last 18 matchups. The under also hits frequently when Miami plays NFC East teams.

Dallas Cowboys vs. Miami Dolphins Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Miami Dolphins (-127). The Dolphins’ impressive home record and dynamic offense make them the safer pick.

Spread: Dallas Cowboys +1 (-104). Despite the Dolphins’ home advantage, the Cowboys’ potent offense could keep the game close, making them a good pick to cover the spread.

Total: Under 51 (-110). Given both teams’ trends towards lower-scoring games against each other, the under seems a viable option.

Predicted Score: Miami Dolphins 26, Dallas Cowboys 23

In conclusion, while the moneyline favors the Dolphins, especially considering their strong home performance, the Cowboys’ ability to cover the spread cannot be underestimated. This matchup promises to be a tightly contested affair, making it a prime candidate for Canadian live betting enthusiasts looking for dynamic odds and exciting opportunities.