Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11-12-23 NFL Week 10 Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11/12/23 – The NFL season is approaching its pivotal stretch, and Week 10 presents an intriguing matchup as the Houston Texans (4-4) take on the Cincinnati Bengals (5-3) on Sunday, November 12, 2023. Both teams are vying for a winning record and looking to position themselves in the playoff picture, making this game a potentially crucial NFL winning pick for avid fans and bettors alike. 

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Date & Time: Sunday, November 12, at 1:00 PM ET

Location: Paycor Stadium


Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals 11/12/23 Betting Odds

Texans+235+6.5 (-110)46.5 over (-110)
Bengals-280-6.5 (-110)46.5 under (-110)

Houston Texans Analysis

The Texans’ offense has shown flashes of brilliance, especially through the arm of their quarterback, C.J. Stroud. With 2270 passing yards and 14 touchdowns to his name, Stroud has demonstrated a capacity to move the chains effectively, highlighted by his impressive 8.1 yards per attempt and a respectable 102.9 passer rating. The receiving corps is anchored by Nico Collins, whose 631 yards and 17.5 yards per reception attest to his big-play ability. However, the Texans’ ground game appears to be their Achilles’ heel, with Dameon Pierce averaging a meager 3 yards per carry. For Houston to notch an upset, their offense will need a more balanced attack against a tough Bengals defense.

Defensively, the Texans have been inconsistent. While their against-the-spread (ATS) record suggests they often outperform expectations, their 6-14 straight-up (SU) record in the last 20 games raises questions about their ability to finish games. The defense will need to tighten up and find ways to generate turnovers to give Stroud and the offense more opportunities to score.

Cincinnati Bengals Analysis

The Bengals come into this game with an efficient offense led by Joe Burrow, who has completed nearly 67% of his passes for 1861 yards and 12 touchdowns. His chemistry with star receiver Ja’Marr Chase is undeniable; Chase’s 697 receiving yards and ability to stretch the field have been key to Cincinnati’s aerial attack. The Bengals’ running game, with Joe Mixon at the helm, has been solid if not spectacular, contributing to a balanced offensive playbook.

Cincinnati’s defense has been formidable, especially at home, with a 10-1 SU record in their last 11 home games. However, the Bengals have struggled to cover the spread in recent home matchups against the Texans, suggesting they sometimes underestimate their opponent or fail to adjust to the Texans’ game plan. Addressing this trend will be critical for Cincinnati’s defense to perform to its potential.

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Against the Spread

The Texans have been a tough team to predict against the spread, but they have found ways to cover in four of their last six games. Additionally, the total has gone UNDER in four of Houston’s last five games, signaling a trend towards lower-scoring affairs, which might suggest a defensive struggle or an offense that is still looking to find its rhythm.

On the other hand, the Bengals have been strong ATS in their last five games, reflecting their ability to outperform expectations. Interestingly, like the Texans, the total has gone UNDER in seven of Cincinnati’s last ten games, further pointing towards the potential for a defensively dominated contest.

Houston Texans vs. Cincinnati Bengals Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Bengals -280

Despite the Texans’ impressive ATS performance against Cincinnati, the Bengals’ overall prowess and home-field advantage make them the clear favorite.

Spread: Texans +6.5 (-110). 

Houston’s history of covering against Cincinnati, especially on the road, suggests they could keep the game closer than the spread indicates.

Total: 46.5 under (-110)

Considering both teams’ trends towards hitting the UNDER, a lower-scoring game could be in store, making the UNDER a compelling pick.

Predicted Score: Cincinnati Bengals 24, Houston Texans 20

This matchup has the makings of a classic, with past performances indicating a closer contest than what the moneyline might suggest. However, the most reliable pick seems to be the UNDER on the total. Both teams have consistently been involved in games that score fewer points than expected, which could be indicative of the defensive capabilities of both sides, as well as some possible offensive inconsistencies. For bettors, particularly those frequenting a Canadian sportsbook, taking the UNDER might be the smartest play in what should be a tightly contested battle at Paycor Stadium.