Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots 11-12-23 NFL Week 10 Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots 11/12/23 – As the NFL season progresses into Week 10, the matchup between the Indianapolis Colts (4-5) and the New England Patriots (2-7) on Sunday, November 12, 2023, is grabbing the attention of sports enthusiasts and bettors looking for NFL free picks today. With both teams positioned on opposite ends of the spectrum in terms of success this season, they will clash at Deutsche Bank Park at 9:30 AM ET, broadcasted live on NFLN.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots

Date & Time: Sunday, November 12, 2023 at 9:30 AM ET

Location: Deutsche Bank Park


Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots 11/12/23 Betting Odds

Colts+184+5 (-106)40.5 over (-115)
Patriots-216-5 (-108)40.5 under (-108)

Indianapolis Colts Analysis

The Indianapolis Colts’ offensive line has shown intermittent sparks of brilliance but lacks consistency. Gardner Minshew, stepping into the quarterback role, has posted a 63.4% completion rate, managing to amass 1,400 passing yards over 8 games. This indicates a moderate passing game that could leverage more from Minshew’s capacity to distribute the ball effectively, especially targeting reliable receiver Michael Pittman Jr., who has secured 50 receptions and 529 yards to his name. In the running game, Zack Moss has been the backbone with an impressive 4.7 yards per rush, yet the Colts will need to expand their playbook to break the Patriots’ defensive schemes.

Defensively, the Colts have areas that require tightening, especially as they prepare to counter the Patriots’ offensive tactics. Their record on the road is a point of concern, especially considering their performance against the spread (ATS) in recent games. The defense will need to ramp up their efforts to contain a Patriots team that, despite its struggles, has the capability to exploit any such weaknesses.

New England Patriots Analysis

The Patriots are having a rough season, but with Mac Jones at the helm of their offense, they’ve showcased moments of potential. Jones has completed 197 passes this season and thrown for 1,861 yards, although the interception count (9) remains a concern. The Patriots’ running game with Rhamondre Stevenson has not been particularly dominant, as evident by his 3.7 yards per attempt, signaling an urgency to revitalize their ground game. Wide receiver Kendrick Bourne has emerged as a notable contributor, gathering 406 receiving yards on 37 receptions, and will be essential in breaking through the Colts’ defensive front.

New England’s defense has similarly struggled this season, reflected in their subpar record. The team has to confront their defensive frailties if they wish to improve their standings. The home ATS statistics are not in their favor, which may impact the confidence and strategies employed by the defensive squad. They will need to find a way to disrupt the Colts’ offensive rhythm and force turnovers to gain any advantage.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Against the Spread

The Colts’ recent history shows they have struggled against the spread, particularly when facing the Patriots, going 2-6 ATS in their last 8 encounters. While the total has gone OVER in many of their games, their ability to cover the spread has been less impressive. Conversely, the Patriots have not fared well either, with a concerning 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games. Yet, they seem to find a footing against Indianapolis at home, boasting a 5-0 ATS in their last five home games against the Colts.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Patriots -216

Despite the Patriots’ unflattering record this season, their history against the Colts and the home-field advantage tip the scales in their favor.

Spread: Colts +5 (-106)

The Colts may not be favorites to win, but their ability to keep games close, especially with a functioning ground game, suggests they can cover the spread.

Total: 40.5 over (-115)

Given both teams’ offensive stats and recent trends, the total going OVER seems a likely outcome for this matchup.

Predicted Score: Indianapolis Colts 21, New England Patriots 24

With both teams having their share of struggles and triumphs, the most reliable pick seems to be the Over on the total points. This is supported by both teams’ tendencies to have higher-scoring games, and for those invested in Canadian live betting, this could be a particularly enticing bet. It’s prudent to observe any late shifts in the line, but the current data suggests a game that could exceed expectations on the scoreboard.