Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev UFC FIGHT NIGHT 238 Betting Picks and Prediction for Saturday, March 2, 2024

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev – As the UFC returns to the APEX in Las Vegas for UFC FIGHT NIGHT 238, fans and bettors alike are gearing up for an explosive heavyweight bout between Jairzinho “BIGI BOY” Rozenstruik and Shamil Gaziev. With Rozenstruik’s record standing at 13-5-0 and Gaziev still undefeated at 12-0-0, this matchup promises to deliver not just an exciting fight but also intriguing UFC FIGHT NIGHT 238 betting picks for those looking to wager on the outcome. Set to air on ESPN+ this Saturday at 4:00 PM ET, this bout highlights the diverse talents and strengths each fighter brings to the octagon.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev

When: Saturday, March 2, 2024 at 4:00 PM ET

Where: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States


Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Betting Odds


Jairzinho Rozenstruik Analysis

Jairzinho Rozenstruik enters this bout with a 13-5 pro MMA record and a background as an elite kickboxer. In terms of striking numbers, Rozenstruik lands 2.81 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking accuracy. This accuracy rate is relatively low for a high-level striker, indicating some defensive holes that allow opponents to land shots. He absorbs 3.15 significant strikes per minute due in part to his mediocre 45% striking defense rate. While Rozenstruik dishes out heavy shots, he also takes a fair amount of damage.

In the grappling department, takedown offense is a major void for Rozenstruik. He fails to secure a single takedown per 15 minutes, with an accuracy rate of 0% on his attempts. While he does sport a 73% takedown defense rate, stronger wrestlers have been able to ground Rozenstruik throughout his career. Coming off a decision loss to Pantoja last time out, shoring up his defensive wrestling and submission defense will be key if he hopes to get back in the win column against the undefeated Gaziev.

Shamil Gaziev Analysis

Shamil Gaziev brings an undefeated 12-0 record with extremely well-rounded numbers. He lands strikes at a high volume, averaging 6.19 significant strikes landed per minute with 51% accuracy. Gaziev pairs this efficient striking offense with stout defensive skills, absorbing just 0.93 significant strikes per minute while maintaining a 60% striking defense rate. These metrics demonstrate high-level kickboxing technique on both sides of the exchanges.

Not just a striker, Gaziev has secured 4 submission victories throughout his MMA career. His grappling metrics back up this finishing ability, as he averages 1.8 submissions per 15 minutes. Gaziev also owns a flawless 100% takedown defense rate, shutting down all opponent’s shots. With 11 finishes in 12 wins, Gaziev possesses legitimate one-shot knockout power and a dangerous submission arsenal. If he opts to take Rozenstruik to the mat, he could very well secure his 12th career finish.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Stats

Average Fight Time7:394:17
Height6′ 2″6′ 4″
Weight242 lbs.265 lbs.
Strikes Landed per Min.2.816.19
Striking Accuracy45%51%
Strikes Absorbed per Min.3.150.93
Takedowns Average/15 min.0.000.00
Takedown Accuracy0%0%
Takedown Defense73%100%
Submission Average/15 min.0.01.8

Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Shamil Gaziev Betting Picks

This heavyweight matchup presents an interesting clash of styles, with Rozenstruik’s world-class striking meeting the well-rounded skill set of Gaziev. Rozenstruik enters as the favorite at -175 odds, while Gaziev sits at +130. Based on Gaziev’s finishing ability and takedown defense, there is value in betting him as the underdog. If he can avoid Rozenstruik’s power punches early, his grappling and cardio could take over as the fight progresses.

While Rozenstruik is the more proven name in the UFC, Gaziev’s undefeated record and finishing instincts make him a smart player. The best bet is to take Shamil Gaziev by submission at +650 odds. If he opts to take Rozenstruik to the mat, Gaziev has clear grappling advantages that give him multiple paths to victory.

Free Pick: Shamil Gaziev +130

Capitalize on the betting value of undefeated upstart Shamil Gaziev at UFC FIGHT NIGHT 238. His grappling prowess and finishing ability give him a strong chance to hand Jairzinho Rozenstruik his second straight loss. Be sure to use top Canadian sports betting sites to get the best UFC odds on all Fight Night 238 action this Saturday.