Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington UFC 296 Betting Picks and Prediction for Saturday, December 16, 2023

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington – The highly anticipated welterweight title fight between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington headlines UFC 296, taking place on December 16, 2023 at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. This Canadian sportsbook offers intriguing betting lines, with the champion Leon “Rocky” Edwards coming in as a -140 favorite while the challenger Colby “Chaos” Covington sits at +120. With clash of styles and plenty of bad blood, this five-round fight promises fireworks. 

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington

Date & Time: Saturday, December 16, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET

Location: T-Mobile Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada, USA


Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Betting Odds


Leon Edwards Analysis

Leon Edwards enters with an impressive 21-3-0 (1 NC) record and is currently on a nine-fight unbeaten streak. He lands an accurate 2.8 significant strikes per minute while minimizing damage taken, employing solid 53% striking defense. His offensive wrestling seems adequate with 1.26 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 33% accuracy clip. However, his stellar 69% takedown defense allows him to often keep fights standing where he is most comfortable. On the feet, Edwards uses his length very well, sticking and moving to set up powerful punches and kicks. He works behind a sharp jab and will mix in threatening elbows and knees in the clinch too. Edwards also possesses dangerous counter punches, ready to make opponents pay for over-extending. His finishing ability cannot be questioned after spectacular KOs of Usman to capture the title. At his best, Edwards is a technical standup fighter with fight-ending power.

Colby Covington Analysis

Meanwhile, Colby Covington sports a 17-3-0 record as an elite welterweight contender, competing with high pressure volume striking and strong wrestling. He lands a high 4.1 significant strikes per minute, attacking in aggressive combinations although at just a 39% accuracy rate. Covington also utilizes great offensive wrestling, averaging 4.05 takedowns per 15 minutes at a 45% clip, constantly pressuring opponents. Once on the mat, Covington unleashes an energetic and smothering top game, allowing him to rack up control time and damage. His cardio seems near limitless, able to set a breakneck pace for 25 minutes. However, his 72% takedown defense remains vulnerable against better wrestlers, and he can be drawn into brawls trading strikes. Although Covington lost his last bout to Masvidal, it was a razor close decision in a fight of the year contender. At his best, Covington overwhelms opponents with pressure and pace, beating them into submission either on the feet or on the ground.

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Stats

Wins/Losses/Draws21-3-0 (1 NC)17-3-0
Average Fight Time16:2416:34
Height6′ 2″5′ 11″
Weight170 lbs.170 lbs.
Strikes Landed per Min.2.804.10
Striking Accuracy53%39%
Strikes Absorbed per Min.2.403.05
Takedowns Average/15 min.1.264.05
Takedown Accuracy33%45%
Takedown Defense69%72%
Submission Average/15 min.0.30.2

Leon Edwards vs. Colby Covington Betting Pick

This matchup presents an interesting clash of styles, as Edwards will look to keep the fight standing and use his superior striking to win exchanges. If he can sprawl and defend takedowns while landing damaging punches and kicks, that is likely his path to victory. Meanwhile, Covington will aim to implement his wrestling pressure game, closing distance to secure takedowns and nullify Edwards’ striking. If he gains top control and unleashes his energetic ground-and-pound attack, that could see him emerge with the belt. After analyzing the odds and trends, Edwards seems poised as a slight betting favorite to successfully defend his title. Covington certainly possesses a dangerous skill set but has shown vulnerability absorbing strikes in past fights. 

Free Pick: Leon Edwards -140

This UFC 296 welterweight title bout between Leon Edwards and Colby Covington promises to be a classic clash of styles and wills. Both fighters bring unique strengths to the table, making this a must-watch event for UFC fans and bettors alike. As someone keen on UFC winning picks, the analysis leans towards Edwards, considering his tactical prowess and recent upswing in performance. However, in the unpredictable realm of MMA, surprises are always around the corner. This fight will undoubtedly add another exciting chapter to the history of the UFC welterweight division.