Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders NFL Week 13 Betting Picks and Prediction for Sunday, December 3, 2023

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders NFL Week 13 – The 8-3 Miami Dolphins travel to FedEx Field to take on the 4-8 Washington Commanders this Sunday in NFL Week 13 action. This interconference clash sees two teams currently situated on opposite ends of the playoff picture. The surging Dolphins have won five straight and currently occupy the 6th seed in the AFC. Meanwhile, the Commanders slim postseason hopes are fading fast having lost three of their last four. This critical game will be televised on FOX. Those looking to bet on the game can take advantage of great offers from top online sportsbooks in Canada.

Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders

Date & Time: Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Location: FedEx Field


Miami Dolphins vs. Washington Commanders NFL Week 13 Betting Odds

Dolphins-280-6.5 -11248.5 over (-110)
Commanders+230+6.5 -11048.5 under (-112)

Miami Dolphins Analysis

Led by blossoming third-year quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins offense has been clicking on all cylinders of late. Tagovailoa has completed 70% of his passes while amassing over 3100 yards through the air along with 22 touchdowns. His rapport with elite speedster Tyreek Hill has been exceptional. The duo has connected on 88 receptions for 1324 yards and 10 scores. Miami’s ground game has also excelled thanks to the hard running of Raheem Mostert. Mostert has topped 780 rushing yards and found pay dirt 13 times. The Dolphins offense could be poised for another big day against a porous Washington defense surrendering the 5th most points per game.

While the offense grabs headlines, it’s been the Dolphins much improved defense that has sparked their five game win streak. Miami is allowing just 16.7 points per contest during that span. The acquisition of edge rusher Bradley Chubb from Denver has provided a major boost. Chubb joins forces with sack artist Jaelan Phillips to form a dynamic pass rushing tandem. The secondary is also playing well led by ball-hawking safety Jevon Holland who has a team-leading 3 interceptions. Miami will need to contain Washington’s passing and rushing attacks to continue their dominant defensive play.

Washington Commanders Analysis

Rookie quarterback Sam Howell has injected some excitement into the Washington offense since taking over as the starter three games ago. While he’s had his share of mistakes, Howell has also displayed encouraging poise and playmaking ability. In his first career start two weeks ago, he made several big-time throws en route to leading the Commanders to victory over the Falcons. Top targets Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel have the speed and elusiveness to give the Dolphins secondary trouble. The ground game spearheaded by tough runner Brian Robinson Jr. has also shown improvement in recent weeks. Robinson has topped 90 rushing yards in two of his past three contests. He could find more running room against a Miami defense surrendering 4.8 yards per carry.

After being gashed both on the ground and through the air earlier in the season, the Washington defense has shown marginal improvement of late. They limited a talented Falcons offense to just 19 points two weeks ago. Pass rusher Montez Sweat can get after the quarterback while defensive tackle Jonathan Allen excels against the run. However, the Commanders defense still ranks near the bottom of the league in points and yards allowed. Containing Miami’s explosive offense is a tall task that will require Washington’s best defensive performance of the year.

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Against the Spread

The Dolphins have been a cover machine going 10-4 ATS including 5-1 ATS during their five game win streak. Miami is also 16-5 ATS in their last 21 December games. The Dolphins offense is operating at an extremely high level averaging 28 points per game over their past six contests. That bodes well for covering a reasonable spread of -6.5 against Washington’s porous defense. 

The Commanders have struggled against quality competition going just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games versus AFC East foes. While Washington’s defense has shown some improvement, they simply lack the firepower to keep pace with Miami’s high-octane attack.

Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Dolphins -280 

The Dolphins are the hottest team in the league right now behind an explosive offense and stingy defense. They should have no trouble dispatching Washington.

Spread: Dolphins -6.5 -112

Miami’s elite offense should flourish against Washington’s porous defense and allow the Dolphins to cover a reasonable spread.

Total: 48.5 over (-110)

The Dolphins offense is averaging 28 points per game over their last six. That scoring prowess paired with Washington’s inconsistent offense should push this game over the projected total.

Predicted Score: Miami Dolphins 34, Washington Commanders 20

The Dolphins are the hottest team in football right now and have shown no signs of slowing down. Their offensive explosion paired with defensive dominance makes Miami too tough for the fledgling Commanders to handle. Even on the road, Tagovailoa and the Dolphins offense should prosper and help Miami cover the spread with relative ease. Riding a surging offense and stingy defense, Miami is clearly the safer play across the board among this week’s free football picks.