New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames – The New Mexico State Aggies take on the undefeated Liberty Flames this Friday night in a late-season NCAAF matchup. With bowl eligibility and a potential conference championship on the line, we break down all the odds, stats, and trends to make our NCAAF picks and predictions. This showdown pits two high-performing teams against each other in a contest that’s sure to be a defining moment in their seasons.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames
Date & Time: Friday, December 1, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET
Location: Williams Stadium
TV: CBSSN
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Betting Odds
| Team | Moneyline | Spread | Total |
| New Mexico State | +315 | +10.5 (-113) | 55.5 over (-110) |
| Liberty | -385 | -10.5 (-107) | 55.5 under (-110) |
New Mexico State Aggies Analysis
The Aggies enter this game on an absolute tear, riding a 10-game winning streak while going a perfect 10-0 against the spread over that span. Quarterback Diego Pavia has given this offense a huge spark, averaging 150 passing yards per game with 23 touchdowns and over 600 rushing yards on the year. Running back Star Thomas adds balance on the ground, averaging over 5 yards per carry with 4 scores. This efficient offense complements a solid defense that has held opponents to just 16 points per contest. With bowl eligibility clinched, the Aggies are playing with house money and have proven they can compete with anyone.
While New Mexico State’s defense has been stout all season, they face a prolific Liberty attack that will test them unlike any opponent this year. The secondary in particular could be vulnerable, as opposing quarterbacks have averaged 219 passing yards against the Aggies. For New Mexico State to extend their win streak, the defensive front must get pressure and the defensive backs must avoid giving up the big play.
Liberty Flames Analysis
The undefeated Flames have smashed every opponent in their path en route to a perfect 12-0 record. Freshman quarterback Kaidon Salter has been sensational, averaging over 10 yards per attempt and tallying 29 touchdowns through the air. Running back Quinton Cooley takes further pressure off Salter, racking up over 1200 rushing yards at 6 yards per clip. Top receiver CJ Daniels averages an insane 20 yards per catch and already has 9 touchdowns. This Liberty offense averages over 40 points per game and seemingly scores at will.
While Flames quarterback Salter has shredded defenses with his dual-threat ability, he has been turnover prone at times with 5 interceptions on the year. The New Mexico State defense excels at forcing mistakes and ranks 12th nationally with 23 takeaways. If the Aggies can rattle the freshman and create a few turnovers, they could hang around. Still, it’s a tall task slowing down this explosive attack.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Against the Spread
New Mexico State has been a covering machine lately, going 10-0 against the number in their last 10 contests. As underdogs of 10.5 points, the Aggies have played exceptionally well in the underdog role. The defense has kept them competitive while the offense has done just enough to grind out wins and covers. With the Aggies receiving over 10 points, there is plenty of cushion for New Mexico State to still cover while losing straight up.
While Liberty has fewer covers than the Aggies this season, trends still favor the Flames to cover as substantial favorites at home. Liberty is 16-6 against the spread in their last 22 home games and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 games as a favorite. Even if the Aggies keep this relatively close, the high-flying Liberty offense should do enough damage to win by at least 11 points and cover at home.
New Mexico State Aggies vs. Liberty Flames Free Pick
Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:
Moneyline: Liberty -385
The Flames’ consistent performance and undefeated record give them an edge in this matchup.
Spread: Liberty -10.5 (-107)
Given their strong ATS record and overall dominance, Liberty is likely to cover the -10.5 spread.
Total: 55.5 over (-110)
Both teams have shown strong offensive capabilities, making the over a promising pick.
Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 32, New Mexico State Aggies 22
In conclusion, while the Aggies have shown resilience, the Flames’ overall performance makes them a more reliable pick, particularly for those interested in live betting in Canada. This game promises to be an exciting matchup with potential for high scoring and dynamic plays from both sides.
