North Texas Mean Green vs. SMU Mustangs 11-10-23 NCAAF Week 11 Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

North Texas Mean Green vs. SMU Mustangs 11/10/23 – As we head into Week 11 of the college football season, bettors are scanning the board for the best NCAAF winning pick. In a matchup set to take place on Friday, November 10, 2023, the North Texas Mean Green will face off against the SMU Mustangs in what promises to be a high-octane clash. With North Texas struggling to find consistency at 3-6 against the 7-2 record of the Mustangs, the stage is set for an enthralling encounter at Gerald J. Ford Stadium.

North Texas Mean Green vs. SMU Mustangs

Date & Time: Friday, November 10 at 9:00 PM ET

Location: Gerald J. Ford Stadium


North Texas Mean Green vs. SMU Mustangs 11/10/23 Betting Odds

North Texas+425+13.5 (-115)67.5 over (-111)
SMU-901-13.5 (-115)67.5 under (-111)

North Texas Mean Green Analysis

The Mean Green’s offense has been a tale of robust yardage tempered by inconsistent end product. Quarterback Chandler Rogers has shown the ability to rack up significant passing yards, totaling 2,445 with a 63.5% completion rate. His 21 passing touchdowns against 3 interceptions reflect an impressive level of control and offensive leadership. On the ground, Ayo Adeyi has been a force, averaging 7.3 yards per carry and punching in 4 touchdowns. Through the air, Ja’Mori Maclin has emerged as a top target, hauling in 11 touchdowns and averaging an outstanding 17.4 yards per reception.

Defensively, North Texas has had their challenges, which are evident in their inability to close out games successfully, going 1-4 SU in their last 5 games. The defense has to step up, especially against an SMU team that boasts a potent offensive threat. They will need to find ways to improve their pass rush and coverage to stall the Mustangs’ dynamic attack.

SMU Mustangs Analysis

The Mustangs come into this game with a sterling offensive resume. Preston Stone at quarterback has been a linchpin for the SMU offense, passing for 2,355 yards with a 58.9% completion rate and 21 touchdowns. His ability to spread the ball around and maintain composure under pressure will be key against North Texas. On the ground, Jaylan Knighton has proven his mettle, averaging 5.4 yards per carry, adding another layer of depth to SMU’s offensive playbook. While Jake Bailey may not have found the end zone yet, his 31 receptions for 384 yards are not to be overlooked, as he can create plays downfield.

Defensively, the Mustangs have shown strength, especially at home, as reflected in their 6-0 SU in their last 6 games at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. They will aim to exploit North Texas’s weaknesses and solidify their own standing with disciplined defensive play. 

North Texas Mean Green vs. SMU Mustangs Against the Spread

North Texas has a mixed record against the spread but has shown a strong ability to cover in their recent outings, going 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games. On the flip side, SMU has been impeccable at home, both straight up and against the spread, going 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games against North Texas, indicating a trend that they are a good bet when playing in their own backyard.

North Texas Mean Green vs. SMU Mustangs Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: SMU -901

The moneyline is heavily skewed towards the Mustangs, reflecting their dominance, particularly in home games. The Mustangs’ consistent performance makes them the safer moneyline pick.

Spread: North Texas +13.5 (-115)

North Texas may be the underdogs, but their ability to cover spreads recently, combined with the potential for a backdoor cover in a high-scoring game, makes them a good bet with the points.

Total: 67.5 over (-111)

Considering the offensive capabilities of both teams and North Texas’ trend to go UNDER combined with SMU’s OVER in recent games, this matchup could go either way. However, with the firepower on both offenses, betting the over seems like the more attractive option.

Predicted Score: SMU Mustangs 42, North Texas Mean Green 31

For those looking at Canadian best sports betting options, the SMU Mustangs to cover the spread at -13.5 is tempting, but North Texas’s recent trend of covering and the possibility of a high-scoring game tips the scale in favor of taking North Texas with the points. Bettors should consider the recent trends and key offensive players that could make the difference, but as always, check the latest conditions and odds before placing your bets.