Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley 9-18-23 EPL Soccer Prediction, Analysis and Odds

Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley 9/18/23 – The EPL picks today focus on a midweek fixture that is bound to keep both teams on their toes. Nottingham Forest (2-0-2) will lock horns with Burnley (0-0-3) at The City Ground in West Bridgford, England. The match will be broadcast on NBCU and is slated to have Matt Turner in goal for Nottingham Forest and James Trafford for Burnley.

Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley 

Date & Time: Monday, September 18, 2023 at 2:45 PM ET

Location: The City Ground in West Bridgford, England


Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley 9/18/23 Betting Odds

Nottingham Forest+120-1 (+380)2.5 over (-138)
Burnley+225+1 (-175)2.5 under (+110)

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest, colloquially known as the Tricky Trees, has had a mixed bag of performances so far this season. They’ve shown their offensive prowess with 6 goals scored, assisted by a strong midfield that has contributed to 5 assists. But it’s not just about the numbers; the team’s attack has exhibited fluidity and the ability to adapt to different styles of play. However, that offensive elan has been somewhat marred by their inability to keep goals out of their own net, having conceded 6 goals already.

Looking at the advanced metrics, Nottingham Forest’s expected goals (xG) of 4.5 and expected goals against (xGA) of 6.4 indicate a team that, for all its offensive capabilities, needs to focus more on defense. The side has already picked up 12 yellow cards and 1 red card this season, indicative of a team that might be struggling with discipline or, perhaps, taking too many risks defensively.

The goalkeeping duties for Nottingham Forest are managed by Matt Turner. He has saved 15 of the 21 shots on target that he’s faced, boasting a save percentage of 76.2%. A seasoned goalkeeper, Turner has been a bulwark between the posts. In his career, spanning 133 starting assignments, he has saved 440 shots and kept 30 clean sheets. His experience and skill set make him one of the key elements in Nottingham Forest’s defensive setup, but he will need more support from his backline to improve the team’s overall statistics.

Burnley Analysis

Burnley has had a rocky start, to say the least. With zero wins in three matches, they are skirting the relegation zone early in the season. They’ve scored a meager 3 goals and have been porous defensively, letting in 11 goals. Their goal difference of -8 is a glaring statistic that they’ll want to address quickly to alleviate concerns about relegation.

Their xG of 2.4 compared to the 3 goals they’ve actually scored shows that they are underperforming even their modest expectations. Defensively, the picture isn’t pretty either. Their 11 goals against are backed by an xGA of a similarly concerning number. This shows that Burnley is equally ineffective on both ends of the pitch, and a tactical reevaluation might be urgently needed.

Goalkeeper James Trafford hasn’t had much to celebrate either. Though he has a decent career record, this season has been a litmus test he’s so far failed. With only a 56% save percentage, Trafford needs a defensive line that can minimize the number of quality shots he has to face. His 1.12 goals conceded per 90 minutes this season shows that, more often than not, he’s left exposed by his defense. In 81 career starting assignments, Trafford has recorded 31 shutouts, but his recent form suggests that another clean sheet may be a while coming unless there’s a dramatic change.

Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley Against the Spread

Nottingham Forest has been a safer bet recently, going 2-2 in their last 5 games and 4-0 against the spread. In contrast, Burnley has been a shaky pick with a 0-3 record in both their last 5 games and against the spread. Interestingly, the totals have gone OVER in 2 of Nottingham Forest’s last 4 games, and a similar trend is observed for Burnley.

Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley Free Pick

Our recommended picks are as follows:

Moneyline: Nottingham Forest +120

Nottingham Forest, given their better form and home advantage.

Spread: Nottingham Forest -1 (+380)

Nottingham Forest, as they’ve been strong against the spread recently.

Total: 2.5 over (-138)

Over, considering both teams have tended for the total goals to go OVER recently.

Draw: A draw seems unlikely, given the contrasting forms of both teams.

Prediction: 1-2 Nottingham Forest win

For those interested in sports betting in Canada or elsewhere, this game offers some intriguing options. Nottingham Forest looks like the safer pick, both on the moneyline and spread, thanks to their recent form and home advantage. The goal totals could also be a profitable venture given recent trends. Burnley will need to up their game significantly to take anything away from this fixture.