Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Week 16 Betting Picks and Prediction for Dec. 24, 2023

Patriots vs. Broncos NFL – In Week 16 of the NFL, the struggling New England Patriots (3-11) face a challenging road game against the Denver Broncos (7-7) on Sunday. This prime-time matchup, set for 8:15 PM ET at Empower Field at Mile High, is crucial for both teams, especially for the Broncos who are striving for a .500-plus season. With the Patriots’ dwindling form and the Broncos’ home-field advantage, this game is a focal point for expert NFL picks this week.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos

Date & Time: Sunday, December 24, 2023 at 8:15 PM ET

Location: Empower Field at Mile High


Patriots vs. Broncos NFL Betting Odds

Patriots+230+6.5 (-110)34 over (-110)
Broncos-275-6.5 (-110)34 under (-110)

New England Patriots Analysis

The New England Patriots’ season has been one of challenges and missed opportunities on offense, particularly on quarterback Mac Jones’ performance. His 64.9% completion rate with 2120 passing yards, 10 touchdowns against 12 interceptions highlights his challenges as an quarterback. Rhamondre Stevenson led their running game with 619 rushing yards but due to inconsistency from their offensive line has limited their ability to establish an effective running game; similarly Demario Douglas’ receiving corps hasn’t made significant impacts, evident by their limited yardage or absence of touchdowns from its receiving corps.

Defensively, the Patriots have not fared particularly well. Their inability to consistently disrupt opposing offenses has been an area of weakness; particularly concerning against teams like Denver that utilize an effective passing attack like theirs. Furthermore, their road record (1-4 ATS in their last 5 games away from home) indicates the challenges they face away from home games; to improve against Denver they need to tighten up their defensive line, enhance pass rush, and strengthen coverage in the secondary.

Denver Broncos Analysis

The Denver Broncos, currently at.500 with a mixed record, have had an uneven season so far but with more positives than negatives. Quarterback Russell Wilson has been crucial, completing 66.3% of his passes for 2832 yards and 24 touchdowns while also being sacked 40 times to indicate weakness in pass protection that needs addressing by their coaches. Meanwhile, Javonte Williams led running game has been steady yet not spectacular, amassing 677 rushing yards per attempt, yet more explosive plays against New England defense are needed for winnng the Patriots game on Sunday.

On the defensive side, the Broncos have proven their resilience. Their ability to keep games low-scoring has resulted in seven out of nine UNDERs; this represents their defensive solidity at home where they have gone 4-1 SU in their last five matches – especially important when taking on New England as they aim to exploit the Patriots’ offensive struggles while maintaining defensive form.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Against the Spread

New England’s betting trends are concerning, with a 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games. The total has gone UNDER in 9 of their last 13 games, indicating a struggle in scoring. The Patriots’ 1-4 ATS record on the road further complicates their prospects against Denver.

Denver, conversely, shows a better trend with a 6-2 SU in their last 8 games. Their dominance at home against New England (15-5 SU in last 20 home games against Patriots) positions them favorably. The UNDER trend in 7 of their last 9 games suggests a defensively strong game plan.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Denver Broncos (-275). The Broncos’ strong record and home field advantage makes them clear favorites.

Spread: Denver Broncos -6.5 (-110). Due to New England’s poor ATS record and Denver’s impressive home play, Denver may cover the spread.

Total: Under 34 (-110). Given both teams’ tendency toward low-scoring games, betting under is the safe choice.

Predicted Score: Denver Broncos 24, New England Patriots 10

Conclusion: In terms of moneyline and spread betting, the Denver Broncos are clearly the more reliable option due to their superior overall performance versus that of New England Patriots. Bettors taking part on top Canadian betting sites should utilize this matchup with total points being an especially reliable pick.