Rafael Estevam vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov 5-6-23 Odds, Best Bets and Analysis

Rafael Estevam vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov 5/6/23 – Estevam and Zhumagulov will battle this weekend as part of an early prelim at UFC 288 event in Newark, New Jersey. Rafael Estevam is an unbeaten Brazilian fighter from Nova Uniao Gym who holds an unblemished record in boxing. Zhumagulov is one of the unluckiest fighters in the UFC. He technically has a 1-5 UFC record but as many in the media reports, his record should actually be closer to 3-3-2 or 4-2. Watch this exciting match and place your bets on the fighter who you think is best by following the UFC betting guide.

Rafael Estevam vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov

Date & Time: Saturday, May 6, 2023 at 6:00 PM ET

Location: Prudential Center, Newark, New Jersey, USA


Rafael Estevam vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov 5/6/23 Betting Odds


Moneyline: -184


Moneyline: +159

Rafael Estevam vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov Analysis

Rafael “Macapa” Estevam enters the cage with an 11-0-0 record and weighs in at 5′ 8″. He boasts an orthodox fighting style with an extended reach of 69″. Rafael Estevam is hitting significant strikes at an average rate of 6.47 hits per minute. Estevam has hit 80 percent of his significant strikes so far. “Macapa” allows an average of 0.40 significant strikes per minute to their opponent inside the cage. Estevam also defends against half of all significant blows directed at him, thus keeping 50% of significant attacks at bay. Rafael Estevam recently made his last Octagon appearance and defeated Joao Elias with punches to the head in round 2.  Elias landed 7 of 12 strikes he unleashed during this contest and Estevam finished up landing 120 of 180 total strikes thrown. Elias was successful in landing three of six significant hits, which equaled 50%. Estevam had better results with significant strikes to the head; landing none out of three significant strikes at it. On the other side of the cage, Estevam scored 80% of his significant strikes by landing 48 of 60. He connected on 47 out of 58 significant hits that hit directly at the head. Elias completed all significant hits at distance while only 2% were done so by Estevam.

Zhalgas Zhumagulov stands 5′ 4″ and will fight at 125 lbs, looking to add another win to his 14-8-0 record. At 34 years old he boasts a wingspan of 66″. Zhalgas Zhumagulov averages 4.87 significant strikes per minute in his significant-strike performance. Zhumagulov hits on 46% of his significant strikes. As far as defense in the cage goes, Zhumagulov averages 5.37 significant hits per minute. Zhumagulov can deflect 53% of strikes that come his way. Zhalgas Zhumagulov met Charles Johnson for his final fight and suffered defeat via split decision in round 3. Johnson hit 87% of his significant strikes at distance while Zhumagulov hit 94% of them of the significant strikes he tried at a distance. Zhumagulov ultimately succeeded in landing 50% of his significant strikes, landing 119 of 234. He made 36 out of 119 significant hits to the head. Johnson secured 115 of 209 significant strikes during this contest. He hit 64 out of 142 significant blows aimed directly at his head. Johnson let go 141 of 237 attempted strikes during that matchup while Zhumagulov managed only 141/258 attempts.

Rafael Estevam stands out in terms of takedown efficiency as he successfully takes down opponents 4.04 times per three rounds. Estevam has taken his opponents down on 50% of attempts and successfully blocked 15% of all takedown attempts. Zhumagulov has taken down his opponents on 19% of his takedown attempts and prevented 66% of any attempted takedown against him. Estevam is the more experienced of the two fighters when it comes to going for submissions, typically attempting 0.5 submissions every three rounds, compared with Zhumagulov who only attempts 0.2 per three.

Rafael Estevam vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov Stats

Average Fight Time7:2511:01
Height5′ 8″5′ 4″
Weight125 lbs.125 lbs.
Strikes Landed per Min.6.474.87
Striking Accuracy80%46%
Strikes Absorbed per Min.0.405.37
Takedowns Average/15 min.4.041.36
Takedown Accuracy50%19%
Takedown Defense0%66%
Submission Average/15 min.0.00.2

Rafael Estevam vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov Free Pick

Zhumagulov will likely benefit from his experience against higher level competition and lessons learned through close decisions; however, UFC online predictions don’t see enough growth to warrant any improvement in this fight against Estevam who will prove one of his superior wrestlers with an edge on feet technique.

Free Pick: Rafael Estevam -184