Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines NCAAF College Football Playoff Semifinal at the Rose Bowl Betting Picks and Prediction for Monday, January 1, 2024

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines – The Michigan Wolverines put their undefeated 13-0 record on the line against the Alabama Crimson Tide 12-1 in a must-see College Football Playoff showdown. These two college football blue bloods collide on New Year’s Day in the Rose Bowl, vying for a spot in the national championship. Our NCAAF bowl betting picks analyze all the key stats, trends and players to deliver insights on the semifinal matchup.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines

Date & Time: Monday, January 1, 2024, at 5:00 PM ET

Location: Rose Bowl


Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Betting Odds

Alabama+107+2 (-105)44.5 over (-115)
Michigan-127-2 (-115)44.5 under (-105)

Alabama Crimson Tide Analysis

The Alabama offense is led by quarterback Jalen Milroe, who has put up strong numbers with 2,718 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and a 177.5 passer rating. Top running back Roydell Williams adds balance on the ground, averaging 5.1 yards per carry for 561 yards and 5 scores. The passing attack features explosive receiver Jermaine Burton, who averages 22.2 yards per catch for 777 yards and 8 touchdowns. This trio will test a Michigan defense that has shown some vulnerabilities against elite offenses.

Defensively, Alabama has struggled at times against the run, allowing 4.1 yards per carry. They must contain Michigan’s standout running back Blake Corum and force the Wolverines into passing situations. The Tide secondary has talent but has been inconsistent, allowing 250 passing yards per game. They’ll be tested by Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy and his top targets. Alabama needs to pressure McCarthy and force mistakes to pull off the upset.

Michigan Wolverines Analysis

The Michigan offense revolves around the running game, led by Blake Corum’s nation-leading 24 rushing touchdowns and 1,028 yards on 4.7 yards per carry. Quarterback J.J. McCarthy complements Corum effectively as a dual threat, passing for over 2,600 yards and 19 touchdowns while running for over 200 yards. Top receiver Roman Wilson is a big play waiting to happen, averaging 16.1 yards per catch for 662 yards and 11 touchdowns. This balanced attack will challenge an Alabama defense that has shown some holes against elite offenses.

Defensively, Michigan has playmakers at all three levels, led by pass rusher Mike Morris. The Wolverines allow just 11.3 points per game. While stout against the run, the secondary has given up some big plays, allowing 250 passing yards per game. Alabama has the passing weapons to exploit this, but Michigan’s pass rush mitigates those concerns. Forcing negative plays and turnovers will be key for Michigan to contain Alabama’s balanced offense.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Against the Spread

Alabama is 5-1 against the spread over their last 6 games. The Crimson Tide have gone over the total in 5 straight and are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 against the Big Ten. They have also gone over in 6 of 8 Monday games. However, Alabama may struggle to move the ball against Michigan’s elite defense on this big stage.

Michigan is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 contests. The Wolverines have gone over in 7 straight games as their offense continues to light up the scoreboard. However, Michigan is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 against the SEC. Their defense has shown weaknesses against elite offenses that Alabama could exploit.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Michigan Wolverines Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Alabama Crimson Tide +107. The Crimson Tide offense matches up well against a Michigan defense that has shown some cracks. Getting over a touchdown with a talented, battle-tested Alabama squad presents solid value.

Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide +2 (-105). The point spread is too much for an Alabama team with the offensive talent to keep this game tight. The Crimson Tide have performed well as underdogs this season.

Total: Over 44.5 -115. Both defenses have enough vulnerabilities for these two talented offenses to put points on the board and push this game over the projected total.

Predicted Score: Alabama Crimson Tide 30, Michigan Wolverines 24

The moneyline and spread represent the best value bets in this playoff showdown. While the total promises offensive fireworks, Alabama’s upset bid ultimately comes up just short against Michigan’s stifling defense. Those looking to get in on the action should consider the Best Sportsbook in Canada for the best odds and props.