Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans NFL Week 13 Betting Picks and Prediction for Sunday, December 3, 2023

Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans – The 6-5 Denver Broncos will hit the road to take on the 6-5 Houston Texans on Sunday afternoon. Canadian sports betting sites will be all over this AFC matchup between two teams still clinging to slim playoff hopes. This game will be played at NRG Stadium in Houston with kickoff set for 1:00 PM ET on CBS.

Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans

Date & Time: Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 1:00 PM ET

Location: NRG Stadium, Houston, TX


Denver Broncos vs Houston Texans Betting Odds

Broncos+130+3.5 (-128)43.5 over (-111)
Texans-150-3.5 (+104)43.5 under (-111)

Denver Broncos Analysis

Denver’s offense has improved since the blockbuster trade for Russell Wilson this past offseason. Through 10 games, Wilson has thrown for 2065 yards, 19 touchdowns and 4 picks while completing 69% of his passes. Those are solid numbers, but the Broncos offense still ranks a mediocre 16th in yards per game. Wilson’s top targets in the passing attack are Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy. Running back Javonte Williams leads the ground game but suffered a season-ending injury in October. Latavius Murray has filled in admirably in his absence. Scoring points has still proven difficult for Denver at times this year. But Wilson’s veteran leadership provides optimism coming down the stretch.

Defensively, Denver remains stout, allowing the 7th fewest points per contest. The pass rush is relentless behind Randy Gregory and Bradley Chubb who have combined for 14 sacks. The secondary also matches up well against Houston’s unproven receiving corps. For Denver to stay in the playoff mix, the defense must stay sturdy and create short fields for Wilson and the offense.

Houston Texans Analysis

Houston has exceeded expectations so far this season behind an surprisingly explosive offense. Sophomore quarterback C.J. Stroud has taken a huge leap in year two, throwing for nearly 3000 yards with 17 touchdowns and 5 picks. His rapport with rookie wideout Nico Collins has been outstanding, as Collins has hauled in 696 receiving yards. Running back Devin Singletary adds balance to the attack with 471 rushing yards and a solid 4.1 yards per carry average. If Stroud and this young offense can continue trending upward, Houston could challenge for an AFC South title.

The Texans defense remains a work in progress, however. While respectable against the run, Houston sits 30th against the pass. The lack of consistent pressure (just 19 sacks) allows opposing quarterbacks tons of time to pick apart the secondary. Veterans Jerry Hughes and Ogbonnia Okoronkwo will need to pay dividends rushing the passer. Rookie cornerback Derek Stingley has flashed potential but has also been picked on often. For Houston to ultimately reach the postseason, defensive coordinator Lovie Smith must unlock more disruption across the defense.

Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Against the Spread

Denver has gone 4-1 ATS over its last 5 games, covering in 4 straight leading up to this matchup. The total has gone under in 5 of the Broncos’ previous 6 outings as well. Meanwhile, Houston has struggled covering spreads recently, going just 1-4 ATS over its last 5 contests. However, the total has gone under in 6 of the Texans last 8 matchups. This will be a clash of Denver’s stingy defense against Houston’s burgeoning offense.

Given the Broncos’ proficiency covering spreads and Houston’s recent struggles ATS, backing Denver as short underdogs feels promising. Russell Wilson should find just enough gaps in the Texans’ porous pass defense to keep this one competitive late into the 4th quarter and potentially pull off the minor upset.

Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans Free Pick

Based on the odds, trends, and team stats, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Broncos +130

Getting plus money on the road with the more experienced quarterback in Russell Wilson is enticing. The Texans have overachieved to this point while Denver has the defensive edge. Take the Broncos ML for some added value.

Spread: Broncos +3.5

With the spread under a field goal, Denver only needs to keep this one close to cover. Their opportunistic defense should be able to prey on Houston’s mistake-prone offense and create a tight, lower scoring affair throughout.

Total: 43.5 under (-111)

As mentioned, Denver’s stout defense matches up nicely against a shaky Houston offense still searching for consistency. In a game with playoff stakes, points could be hard to come by. The under holds solid value.

Predicted Score: Denver Broncos 24, Houston Texans 20

Russell Wilson’s veteran poise leads a few key scoring drives while Denver’s defense stifles Houston’s young weapons just enough to edge out a close road victory both straight up and against the spread. Be sure to take advantage of the best winning NFL picks for this and all of Week 13’s contests.