VCU Rams vs Saint Mary's Gaels 3-17-23 NCAA Basketball Analysis, Tips and Odds

VCU Rams vs Saint Mary’s Gaels 3/17/23 – On Friday night, VCU Rams and Saint Mary’s Gaels will square off in the first round of the NCAA Tournament. On March 12, 12-seed VCU upset Dayton in the Atlantic 10 Championship to claim its second regular-season conference title. Fifth-seeded Saint Mary’s fell to Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference Championship on March 7. The Gaels shared the WCC regular season crown with the Bulldogs. According to the NCAAB betting forum, VCU Rams are favorites for this matchup.

VCU Rams vs Saint Mary’s Gaels

Date & Time: Friday, March 17, 2023 at 2:00 PM ET 

Location: MVP Arena


VCU Rams vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Betting Odds


Moneyline: +165

Spread: +4 (-105)

Total: 122 over (-115)

Saint Mary’s

Moneyline: -190

Spread: -4 (-115)

Total: 122 under (-105)

VCU Rams vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Analysis

VCU Rams is on a nine-game winning streak after dominating the A-10 tournament. The Rams score 71.0 points per game and shoot 45.9 percent from the field, including 33.6 percent from long distance. They convert 70.5 percent of their free throws and average 30.5 rebounds with a +0.4 rebounding margin, ranking them 140th in schedule-adjusted offensive efficiency, 86th in effective field goal percentage, and 147th in adjusted pace. VCU allows 63.0 points per game and their opponents shoot 41.7 percent, including 32.7 percent from deep. VCU ranks 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 201st in assist-per-turnover ratio.

Saint Mary’s Gaels couldn’t get revenge against rival Gonzaga during the WCC Tournament, but that doesn’t mean they are out of options. As co-regular season champs in 2017, SMU hopes to make a statement in the NCAA Tournament as KenPom #11 team; expectations are certainly high for this SMU squad. Saint Mary’s averages 71.9 points per game and shoots 46.1 percent from the field, including 37.2 percent from three-point range. It converts 69.5 percent of its free throw attempts and averages 33.0 rebounds with an impressive +7.1 rebounding margin. SMU ranks 40th in adjusted offensive efficiency, 73rd in effective field goal percentage and 359th in adjusted tempo. Their opponents score 59.3 points per game on 40.7 percent shooting including 32.0 percent from three-point range; Saint Mary’s ranks 9th for adjusted defensive efficiency and 77th in assist-per-turnover ratio respectively.

VCU Rams vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Against the Spread

Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Friday games. Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Rams are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. Rams are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Over is 6-1 in Rams last 7 NCAA Tournament games.

Gaels are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a straight up loss. Gaels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. Gaels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points. The Gaels are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Over is 4-1 in Gaels last 5 games following an ATS loss.

VCU Rams vs Saint Mary’s Gaels Free Pick

The Rams have won nine consecutive games, riding their strong defense into the tournament. They’ll pose problems for Saint Mary’s offense, creating turnovers that could put the slow-paced Gaels behind in the count. The Gaels, on the other hand, have not proven to be a reliable team in the tournament despite winning 26 or more games five out of six seasons. They haven’t made it past the second round in any of those seasons and lost twice in the first round. Despite being the underdog here, VCU Ram will win and advance to the second round as per college basketball betting trends.

Free Pick: VCU Rams +4 (-105)