Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen NCAAF Week 15 Betting Picks and Prediction for Saturday, December 9, 2023

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen – The annual Army-Navy football rivalry game has huge implications this year, with both service academies entering with 5-6 records and needing one more win to clinch bowl eligibility. Read on for our expert NCAAF picks and complete analysis of one of college football’s most storied rivalries. 

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen

Date & Time: Saturday, December 9, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Location: Gillette Stadium


Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Betting Odds

Army-140-2.5 (-122)32.5 over -111
Navy+110+2.5 (-110)32.5 under -111

Army Black Knights Analysis

The Army offense runs through junior quarterback Bryson Daily and the Black Knights’ triple-option rushing attack. Daily has led the way with 817 rushing yards and 7 TDs on the ground while completing just over 50% of his passes for 859 yards, 6 TDs and 6 interceptions. His top target has been wideout Isaiah Alston, who is averaging nearly 30 yards per catch with 2 TDs. The Army offense averages 28 points per game but will need to be sharper against a stingy Navy defense allowing just 20 ppg.

Defensively, Army allows 25 ppg and has been vulnerable against the pass, allowing nearly 250 passing yards per contest. Their rush defense has been decent, giving up 130 rushing yards per game, but Navy’s triple-option attack will test Army’s ability to set the edge and make open-field tackles. For Army to reclaim the Commander-in-Chief trophy, their defense must limit Navy’s big plays on the ground.

Navy Midshipmen Analysis

The Midshipmen have their own triple-option rushing offense led by quarterback Tai Lavatai. He has thrown for over 500 yards and 4 TDs while averaging 7 yards per pass attempt, with top target Eli Heidenreich averaging 21 yards per catch and hauling in 4 TD grabs. But Navy’s bread and butter is on the ground – they average 292 rushing yards per game behind Lavatai and running back Alex Tecza, who has racked up 724 yards at 6.2 yards per carry. If Navy can dominate the time of possession and limit turnovers, they have a great chance to upset Army.

Defensively, Navy is giving up just 20 points per contest. They’ve defended the pass well, holding opponents under 200 yards per game through the air, but their vulnerability has been against the run. Opponents average 191 rushing yards per game against the Midshipmen, which does not bode well going against Army’s top-ranked rushing offense averaging 284 yards per contest. Navy must load the box and contain Army’s ground game to pull off the upset.

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Against the Spread

Army has struggled against the spread recently, going just 2-5 ATS over their last 7 contests. However, history favors the Black Knights against their rivals, as they are 8-4 ATS over the last 12 meetings with Navy. The total has gone under in 4 of Army’s last 6 outings. When playing on the road against AAC opponents, Army is 2-5 straight up over their previous 7 games. They tend to play well late in the year, going 10-4 straight up in their last 14 December games.

For Navy, unders have hit in 5 of their last 7 games and in a whopping 16 of their previous 17 showdowns with Army. As underdogs this year, the Midshipmen are 2-8 straight up over their past 10 games. In recent years when facing Independent programs, Navy has struggled to just a 2-12 SU record over 14 contests. The total has gone under in 6 of 7 December games for Navy. And in 11 of their last 12 week 15 matchups, Navy games have finished under the projected point total.

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Navy Midshipmen (+110). Despite being the underdog, Navy’s balanced offense and strong defensive trends give them a slight edge.

Spread: Army Black Knights -2.5 (-122). Army’s aggressive offensive play may not secure a clear win, but it could help them cover the spread.

Total: Under 32.5 (-111). Both teams have shown tendencies towards low-scoring games, making the under a safer bet.

Predicted Score: Army Black Knights 17, Navy Midshipmen 20

The most reliable pick for this game seems to be the under on the total. Both teams have a history of keeping the score low, especially in head-to-head matchups. Betting enthusiasts looking for the best sportsbook in Canada should consider this pick for its historical consistency and current team dynamics. This game, with its rich tradition and fierce rivalry, is not just a sports event; it’s a testament to the spirit and dedication of the young men on the field.