Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 9-24-23 NFL Week 3 Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 9/24/23 – Week 3 NFL action kicks off at EverBank Stadium with the Houston Texans (0-2) taking on the Jacksonville Jaguars (1-1). Both teams find themselves at a crossroads early on; with the Texans desperately needing a win while maintaining momentum with bettors looking for free football picks this matchup should provide interesting insight. For bettors looking for free picks this analysis should provide valuable guidance.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Date & Time: Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET

Location: EverBank Stadium

TV: Fox

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars 9/24/23 Betting Odds

Texans+330+9.5 (-117)44.5 over -110
Jaguars-410-9.5 (-103)44.5 under -110

Houston Texans Analysis

The Texans’ offensive woes cannot be overlooked. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has shown promise, throwing for 626 yards across two games with an impressive passer rating of 91.2 and an accuracy rate of 63%; yet his supporting cast leaves much to be desired; running back Dameon Pierce averaged only 2.7 yards per carry this season, restricting Stroud’s ability to open up the field and making them one-dimensional offensively.

Defense has been an issue for the Texans this season. Although specific statistics regarding their defensive performance haven’t been provided, their trend lines indicate problems; having lost 12 of 14 games outright suggests some obvious weaknesses on defense. Going against an Jaguars offense that utilizes both passing and running attacks, the Texans will need to find ways to disrupt Trevor Lawrence and company in order to stand any chance at victory this time around.

Jacksonville Jaguars Analysis

The Jaguars offense has been on an impressive tear this year, thanks to young quarterback Trevor Lawrence. Although still getting used to NFL pace, Lawrence has already amassed 457 yards for an 84.1 passer rating and made notable strides when teaming with running back Travis Etienne Jr. Etienne has averaged 3.9 yards per carry and contributed one rushing touchdown so far, suggesting an effective offensive strategy which may pose problems to Texans’ defense.

Defensively, the Jaguars possess more promise than their opponents. They have allowed five out of their last seven games to end UNDER, signifying effective defense. But they will face an unprecedented challenge in stopping Texans wide receiver Nico Collins, who already amassed 226 receiving yards in two games; their secondary will need to remain vigilant so that Collins and Stroud don’t connect on big plays that threaten victory for Houston.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Against the Spread

Looking at betting trends, the Texans seem to defy expectations when facing Jacksonville Jaguars. In seven games against them they are an impressive 5-2 against the spread (ATS), 9-1 straight up (SU), but just 5-15 on road games since 2005; showing they struggle away from home to secure victories.

The Jaguars have experienced great success recently, going 7-2 against the spread (ATS) over their past nine outings and 5-1 straight up (SU) during that span at home. What complicates matters further is their perplexing record against Houston Texans at EverBank Stadium: 1-7 straight up! This anomaly indicates that while they tend to fare well ATS against most opponents when facing them head on, when facing Houston Texans especially at home they become vulnerable against numbers bias and often come out on top in favor of their opponents’ opponents’ numerical superiority.

Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: I would suggest taking the Jaguars on the moneyline. While Houston has had recent success against Jacksonville, the Jaguars seem like the stronger team this season, especially at home.

Spread: Considering Houston’s recent ATS history against the Jaguars, taking Houston +9.5 might offer value, especially if you believe the Texans will keep it close.

Total: Given that the total has gone UNDER in 7 of the last 10 games between these two teams and 5 of Jacksonville’s last 7 games, the UNDER 44.5 seems like a reasonable choice.

Predicted Score: Jacksonville Jaguars 24, Houston Texans 17

As previously discussed, both teams exhibit some promise, but their weaknesses on both sides make betting on either risky. On the other hand, the Jaguars with their young stars seem more reliable and possess an edge at home games compared to the Texans. When placing bets online be sure to visit your favourite Canadian sportsbook and check the odds before placing one.