March Madness 2024 – The TCU Horned Frogs men’s basketball team finds itself squarely on the bubble for an at-large bid to the 2024 NCAA Tournament. With the regular season winding down, every game takes on added importance as the Frogs look to play their way into the field of 68. Canadian betting websites closely monitor these developments, offering odds and insights into the team’s chances and the impact of each game on their tournament prospects.
Horned Frogs Trying to Solidify Tournament Resume
Currently sitting with a NET ranking of 37, TCU has done enough to be in the conversation but has more work to do to feel comfortable on Selection Sunday. After splitting their recent two-game road trip with a thrilling win at Kansas State followed by a disappointing loss at Texas Tech, the Horned Frogs are viewed by bracketologists as landing in the 8-9 seed range. This would likely match them up with a number one seed in the second round should they advance, a daunting potential draw.
The metrics paint TCU as safe in the current field, with various projection systems giving them between an 88-95% chance of making the tournament. Their computer rankings and predictive metrics place them in the 30-40 range nationally. However, at just 17-10 overall and 6-8 in Big 12 play, TCU lacks marquee wins and has a few bad losses weighing down their resume.
March Madness 2024 – Missed Opportunities Against Elite Competition
The Horned Frogs have hung tough with some of the nation’s top teams but have been unable to break through with a signature victory. TCU led Baylor at halftime in both matchups but ended up losing by double-digits each time. They also led Kansas in the second half before falling short. These missed opportunities against tournament locks like Baylor and Kansas have kept the Horned Frogs from boosting their resume.
TCU does have four Quad 1 wins on their resume, but they lack the elite victories that make a tournament selection committee confident in a bubble team. The Quad 1 wins—West Virginia (twice), Oklahoma State and Iowa State—are solid but unspectacular. There are no wins over surefire tournament teams.
Detrimental Home Loss Stands Out
While TCU played Baylor and Kansas tight, their most inexplicable loss came at home against Quadrant 3 opponent Nicholls State. Losing 77-74 to the 147th ranked team is the kind of loss that drives the selection committee crazy when evaluating bubble teams. The Colonels sit well below 100 in the NET and have an RPI outside the top 200. This harmful home loss is a blemish on the Horned Frogs resume.
Closing Stretch Offers Opportunities
The good news for TCU is their closing stretch offers several more chances at improving their tournament profile. They host a desperate Cincinnati team this weekend before a crucial Big Monday showdown with Baylor. avenging an earlier loss to the Bears would go a long way towards stabilizing their tournament standing.
The regular season finale at home against UCF gives the Frogs a shot at a Quad 1 win over the 51st ranked Knights. If TCU can go 2-1 or even 3-0 in this closing stretch against quality competition, they should feel safe on Selection Sunday. Splitting these three games and avoiding any additional bad losses should at least keep them in the conversation.
How Other Bubble Teams Fare Impacts TCU
While the Horned Frogs control their own destiny, how other bubble teams fare will also influence TCU’s tournament odds. Fellow Big 12 bubble teams like West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech all have chances to play themselves in or out over the next few weeks. If they falter and TCU takes care of business, it will help the Horned Frogs.
ACC bubble teams like Virginia, Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Wake Forest also have plenty of important games remaining. If a few of those teams suffer bad losses and fall off the bubble, it benefits a team like TCU. The performance of the wider bubble will be a key factor.
The Road Ahead
For TCU and head coach Jamie Dixon, the focus remains squarely on the next game up. Taking care of business against Cincinnati and making another strong run at Baylor are the immediate priorities. But Selection Sunday looms large.
The Horned Frogs are still in control of their NCAA Tournament destiny, making them a compelling option for March Madness betting picks in Canada. Avoiding any more bad losses while picking off a quality win or two down the stretch should punch their ticket. By handling their own business and getting some help around the bubble, TCU can turn a solid season into a memorable one with their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2018. It will be an anxious few weeks in Fort Worth for those following March Madness betting picks in Canada.
