Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames 10-5-23 NCAAF Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames 10/5/23 – In a gripping encounter this week, we see the winless Sam Houston Bearkats looking to turn their fortune around against the unbeaten Liberty Flames. As we gear up for this contest, both teams are vying for supremacy, while bettors seek the best NCAAF free picks.

Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames

Date & Time: Thursday, October 5, 2023 at 7:00 PM ET

Location: Williams Stadium


Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames 10/5/23 Betting Odds

Sam Houston+750+19 (-107)46 over (-110)
Liberty-2000-19 (-113)46 under (-110)

Sam Houston Bearkats Analysis

The Sam Houston Bearkats, despite their current winless streak, exhibit certain qualities that shouldn’t be overlooked. QB Keegan Shoemaker, at the helm of the offense, has shown that he can get the ball out and find his receivers. With 476 passing yards from 85 attempts, there’s no questioning his effort. However, with a 56.5% completion rate and more interceptions (4) than touchdowns (2), there are concerns about his decision-making and accuracy under pressure. This becomes even more evident considering the 5 sacks he has endured, indicating that the offensive line needs to tighten up their protection.

RB John Gentry‘s numbers haven’t been dazzling. Averaging just 3 yards per rush attempt, there seems to be a challenge in finding running lanes and breaking past the initial defense. The Bearkats need to diversify their rushing strategies to give Gentry better chances of breaking big runs. Wide Receiver Noah Smith seems to be a standout in the offense. With 156 receiving yards and a touchdown from 17 receptions, he has become a reliable target for Shoemaker. Enhancing their offensive strategy to include more targets for Smith could be beneficial.

Defensively, there are holes the Bearkats need to plug. The fact that Shoemaker has been sacked five times in just four games suggests a vulnerability in their offensive line. For the Bearkats to find their footing against a dominant team like the Flames, they will need to bolster their defensive strategy, ensuring better coverage in the secondary and a sturdier defensive line.

Liberty Flames Analysis

The Liberty Flames are in a dominant position, and their performance so far has made them a team to watch this season. Their quarterback, Kaidon Salter, is showcasing elite-level skills. With a remarkable 919 passing yards from just 92 attempts, he’s averaging a fantastic 10 yards per pass attempt. His 57.6% completion rate coupled with 11 touchdowns versus a single interception points towards a player in his prime, making critical plays when it counts the most. His prowess is aided by the exceptional offensive line which has allowed only 3 sacks, ensuring Salter has the time and protection to make those key throws.

Quinton Cooley, their running back, has also been a force on the ground. With an average of 6.1 yards per rush attempt, he’s been tearing through defenses, although the absence of a touchdown is something the Flames would hope changes soon. As for the aerial attack, WR Treon Sibley can’t be ignored. Averaging an outstanding 24 yards per reception and tallying up 2 receiving touchdowns, he has the potential to change the game in a single play.

On the defensive side, Liberty has been a bulwark. They have managed to suppress their opponents effectively, ensuring their own offensive exploits aren’t wasted. However, it’s not just about stopping the opposition; it’s about creating opportunities for turnovers and giving their offense a better starting position. With the Bearkats’ known vulnerabilities, the Flames will look to pounce early and maintain pressure throughout the game.

Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames Against the Spread

The Bearkats, despite their winless streak, have a surprising 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. However, their 0-10 SU in their last ten games and 0-9 SU in road games highlight a concerning trend.

The Flames, on the other hand, have been on a roll with a 5-0 ATS in their last five games and an impressive 4-1 SU in their last five games. Their 16-4 SU record in home games further tilts the balance in their favor, especially considering their recent October performances, standing at 6-0 SU.

Sam Houston Bearkats vs. Liberty Flames Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Liberty -2000

The Liberty’s dominant form and home advantage make them the clear favorites.

Spread: Liberty -19 (-113) 

Given the Liberty’s offensive prowess and Sam Houston’s struggles, a win by over 19 points is highly plausible.

Total: 46 under (-110)

While Liberty has shown offensive dominance, Sam Houston’s inability to consistently score may keep the total under 46.

Predicted Score: Liberty Flames 31, Sam Houston Bearkats 10

In conclusion, while the underdogs have their moments, the Liberty Flames’ overwhelming form, especially in Williams Stadium, makes them the most reliable pick to bet on this game. For those delving into Canadian sports betting, this game provides a good opportunity to capitalize on the Flames’ dominance.