Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators 10-7-23 NCAAF Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators 10/7/23 – As we approach Week 6 of the NCAAF season, the Vanderbilt Commodores and the Florida Gators gear up for what promises to be a riveting encounter. Both teams enter this contest with contrasting records and performances, with Vanderbilt at 2-4 and Florida holding a 3-2 slate. However, as any seasoned follower of daily NCAAF picks would tell you, stats only tell part of the story. The upcoming battle at the Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium is not just about the numbers but about pride, tactics, and sheer will.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators

Date & Time: Saturday, October 7, 2023 at 4:00 PM ET

Location: Florida Field at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium


Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators 10/7/23 Betting Odds

Vanderbilt+700+18 (-110)52 over (-105)
Florida-1100-18 (-110)52 under (-115)

Vanderbilt Commodores Analysis

On the offensive front, Vanderbilt’s prowess hinges considerably on quarterback AJ Swann. Swann’s arm has generated 1,290 passing yards, an impressive stat that shows his ability to dissect defensive coverages. But he hasn’t been without his struggles, and his 7 interceptions reveal moments of poor judgment or perhaps the pressure of carrying a team that often trails in games. While Swann’s aerial game showcases promise, the ground game, anchored by Patrick Smith, provides a reliable fallback. Smith’s 238 rushing yards and 2 touchdowns, though modest, offer a balance to Vanderbilt’s offensive strategies. However, the real star in their offensive lineup has been Will Sheppard. With a tally of 443 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns, Sheppard’s chemistry with Swann has been Vanderbilt’s offensive highlight.

However, defense remains Vanderbilt’s Achilles heel. Their recurring inability to cover the spread, evidenced by their recent seven-game streak, underscores their issues in the defensive backfield and their struggle against high-powered offenses. Their line has been porous at times, allowing big plays that shift the momentum away from them. As they prepare to face a Gators side known for its offensive firepower, the Commodores need to tighten their ranks, provide better coverage, and find ways to put pressure on the quarterback, thereby forcing errors.

Florida Gators Analysis

Florida’s offense is a beacon of consistency, largely due to the impeccable form of Graham Mertz. With a stellar completion rate of 79.1% and amassing 1,220 passing yards, Mertz stands as a cornerstone of the Gators’ success. His keen vision and ability to read defenses have been exemplary, making him a force to reckon with. Complementing Mertz’s aerial prowess is Trevor Etienne, who’s been a revelation on the ground. Averaging 6 yards per carry, Etienne’s dynamism provides the Gators with an enviable dual-threat capability. Ricky Pearsall, though not amassing jaw-dropping numbers, remains a significant asset, providing Mertz with a dependable target, especially during clutch situations.

The Gators, however, have shown cracks in their defensive armor. Their 1-5 record ATS in their last 6 outings speaks to vulnerabilities that can be exploited by teams with a potent passing game. Despite these struggles, Florida’s home record is commendable, with an impressive 7-1 straight-up in their last eight home encounters. The challenge that remains, however, is ensuring that their defensive backfield remains tight and disciplined against Vanderbilt, particularly against threats like Sheppard. The defensive line also needs to up its ante, ensuring better pressure and, in turn, creating opportunities for turnovers.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Against the Spread

Vanderbilt’s recent betting trends do not inspire confidence. With 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games and a concerning 1-4 SU in their last 5 games, it’s evident that the Commodores have struggled to live up to expectations. Their history against Florida also paints a bleak picture, with a 2-18 SU in their last 20 meetings.

Florida, despite their superior win-loss record, hasn’t been a reliable pick against the spread either, going 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games. However, history is on their side, especially when playing at home against Vanderbilt, with a dominant 12-1 SU in their last 13 games.

Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Florida Gators Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Florida -1100

Despite the steep odds, the Gators’ form and historical dominance over Vanderbilt make them the clear favorites.

Spread: Florida -18 (-110)

Given Vanderbilt’s struggles ATS and Florida’s home dominance against the Commodores, it’s probable that the Gators will cover the spread.

Total: 52 over (-105) 

Considering the offensive weapons on both sides and recent trends, this game could witness a combined score that goes over 52.

Predicted Score: Florida Gators 38, Vanderbilt Commodores 17

In conclusion, while both teams have their strengths and weaknesses, the Gators seem to have a clear upper hand, especially when playing at home. For those looking to place bets, one of the top betting sites in Canada would offer comprehensive odds on this matchup, and given the trends and stats, the Gators seem to be the safer pick in this encounter.