Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers 9-28-23 NFL Week 4 Analysis, Best Picks, and Odds

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers 9/28/23 – The NFL season is heating up as we enter Week 4, and football fans are in for a treat with a matchup between the Detroit Lions and the Green Bay Packers. Both teams hold a 2-1 record, making this game vital for their respective playoff hopes. As bettors scan the market for the best NFL picks, this encounter presents a tantalizing opportunity. 

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers

Date & Time: Thursday, September 28, 2023, at 8:15 PM ET

Location: Lambeau Field


Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers 9/28/23 Betting Odds

Detroit Lions+105+0.5 (-111)46.5 over (-111)
Green Bay Packers-125-0.5 (-115)46.5 under (-111)

Detroit Lions Analysis

Jared Goff leads the Lions’ offensive unit, displaying incredible efficiency with a 71.4% completion rate. In just two games, he has accumulated 576 passing yards with an impressive average of 8.2 yards per pass attempt. His strong connection with Amon-Ra St. Brown has been particularly noteworthy, with the wide receiver averaging 86.5 yards per game, making them a formidable duo on the field. Moreover, David Montgomery’s ground game cannot be ignored; his capability to weave through defenses and pick up crucial first downs is a key element in Detroit’s playbook.

On the defensive side, Detroit’s history at Lambeau Field is a cause for concern. Their 4-16 SU in the last 20 games on the road against the Packers suggests a psychological or strategic hurdle they’ve yet to overcome. To claim victory, they’ll need to rectify their shortcomings, particularly in the secondary. Putting pressure on Jordan Love and containing the Packers’ receiving threats will be paramount, especially in the hostile environment of Lambeau.

Green Bay Packers Analysis

Jordan Love has swiftly stepped up, showcasing his potential as Green Bay’s future star quarterback. With a 118.8 passer rating in two games, he’s thrown for 396 yards and demonstrated his ability to make big plays when needed. Love’s primary target, Jayden Reed, stands out in the receiving corps, averaging 42.5 yards per game with two touchdowns. Their synergy will be key in exploiting the Lions’ defensive vulnerabilities. On the ground, while AJ Dillon’s stats might seem modest, his capability to grind out tough yards and eat clock can prove invaluable, especially in close contests.

Defensively, the Packers have a rich history of maintaining their stronghold at Lambeau Field. Their stats against Detroit at home are impressive, with a 16-4 SU in the last 20 games. Green Bay’s front seven will be crucial in this encounter. Containing Detroit’s rushing game and putting pressure on Goff could potentially lead to turnovers. Their secondary, however, will need to stay alert to the aerial threat posed by the Lions, ensuring they don’t concede big plays.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Against the Spread

Detroit’s recent betting trends reveal an 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games and a commendable 10-2 ATS in their past 12 games against Green Bay. Moreover, they’ve been 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games. However, a concerning stat is their 4-16 SU in their last 20 games on the road against the Packers.

Green Bay, on the other hand, has been formidable with a 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games. They’ve also maintained a 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games against NFC opponents, suggesting a consistent performance against conference rivals.

Detroit Lions vs. Green Bay Packers Free Pick

Based on odds, trends, team stats, and key players, here are the picks:

Moneyline: Packers -125

The Packers’ home advantage at Lambeau and their historical dominance over Detroit give them the edge.

Spread: Lions +0.5 (-111) 

Detroit’s recent ATS trends, especially against Green Bay, make them a good pick to cover the spread.

Total: 46.5 under (-111)

Both teams have recent trends leaning towards the under, and with defensive plays expected, the total might not breach the set mark.

Predicted Score: Green Bay Packers 21, Detroit Lions 20

In conclusion, while both teams present strong cases for a win, the historical and home advantage of Green Bay might prove crucial. For those interested in live betting in Canada or anywhere else, this game promises to be a nail-biter with potentially lucrative returns.