Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers 9-22-23 NCAAF Prediction, Analysis, and Odds

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers 9/22/23 – As the college football season continues to heat up, we turn our attention to an intriguing matchup in NCAAF Week 4 between the Wisconsin Badgers (2-1) and the Purdue Boilermakers (1-2). With their own aspirations and concerns, both teams are looking for a statement win. Let’s dive into the details and see what the data tells us for making the best NCAAF Week 4 free picks.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers

Date & Time: Thursday, September 22, 2023, at 7:00 PM ET  

Location: Ross-Ade Stadium  

TV: FS1  

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers 9/22/23 Betting Odds

Wisconsin-220-6 (-110)53.5 over (-108)
Purdue+190+6 (-110)53.5 under (-112)

Wisconsin Badgers Analysis

The Badgers’ offensive scheme is traditionally run-heavy, and it’s no different this year with Chez Mellusi at the helm of the ground attack. Mellusi has racked up 268 yards on just 40 carries, translating to an impressive 6.7 yards per carry. This robust running game sets up the passing attack led by Tanner Mordecai, whose stats may not wow you but serve to balance the offense. Mordecai’s conservative passing game, boasting a completion percentage of 67.3 and 6.9 yards per pass attempt, is indicative of a system that leans on minimizing mistakes and controlling the clock.

On defense, the Badgers have been mostly solid but exhibit vulnerabilities that Purdue might exploit. While they are 6-3 straight up in their last 9 games, their 1-6 ATS record in the last seven road games is cause for concern. Wisconsin will need to bolster their secondary to fend off Purdue’s passing game, especially when away from home. So, for the Badgers to truly put the game away, their defensive line will have to put pressure on Purdue’s quarterback, Hudson Card, and prevent him from getting comfortable in the pocket.

Purdue Boilermakers Analysis

Purdue has a slightly different offensive profile. Quarterback Hudson Card has shown the ability to air it out more liberally than his Wisconsin counterpart, tallying 825 passing yards and averaging 7.5 yards per pass. However, the running game led by Devin Mockobee has been lackluster. Averaging just 3.8 yards per rush, Purdue’s ground attack isn’t instilling fear into any defense. The standout player for Purdue is wide receiver Deion Burks, who has been a significant big-play threat with an eye-popping 24.6 yards per reception.

Defensively, Purdue faces significant challenges. They’ve been weak against the spread recently, going 1-4 ATS in their last five games. This vulnerability is exacerbated when they play at home, where they have a dismal 0-6 ATS record in their last six games. The Boilermakers need to fortify their run defense to have any chance of containing Mellusi and the Badgers’ ground game, given the recent struggles.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Against the Spread

Wisconsin has had some struggles against the spread lately, going 2-5 in their last seven games. However, their record against Purdue specifically is astounding, with a 13-3 ATS and a 10-0 SU in their last 10 matchups. This suggests that despite some general struggles, they have historically had Purdue’s number.

On the other hand, Purdue’s recent betting trends are discouraging. They are 1-4 ATS in their last five games and have an even worse record at home, going 0-6 ATS in their last six home games. Even more alarming is their 0-9 ATS record when playing at home against Wisconsin, suggesting a specific disadvantage when the Badgers come to town.

Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers Free Pick

Based on the in-depth analysis, here are our tips for the bettors:

Moneyline: Wisconsin -220

Given the Badgers’ historical dominance over Purdue and their current form, the safe money is on Wisconsin.

Spread: Wisconsin -6 (-110)

Despite some recent struggles on the road, Wisconsin’s record against Purdue is too compelling to ignore.

Total: 53.5 under (-112)

Considering both teams have shown some offensive inconsistencies and the total has gone UNDER in 6 of Wisconsin’s last 8 games, the Under is a good pick here.

Predicted Score: Wisconsin 27, Purdue 17

Based on recent performances and historical matchups, the Wisconsin Badgers are the likely victors in this upcoming showdown. As the sports betting in Canada market continues to grow, this game offers some promising options for those looking to make well-informed wagers.